Ανάλυση αγορών από την CMC Markets

Η ουκρανική κρίση επισκιάζει τα οικονομικά στοιχεία που δημοσιοποιούνταιΥψηλά επιτόκια στις αναδυόμενες και άνοδος τιμών στα εμπορεύματα θέτουν σε κίνδυνο τις μετοχέςΟι αγορές θα πρέπει να περιμένουν συνέχιση της ουκρανική κρίσηςΟ βρετανικός PMI κατασκευών στο επίκεντρο του ενδιαφέροντος σήμεραΑύξηση αναμένεται στην ανεργία της Ισπανίας τον Φεβρουάριο

Higher open for Europe on reports that Russian troops ordered back to bases

By

Michael Hewson (Chief Market Analyst at CMC Markets UK

Whenever we’ve had equity market corrections in the past there have usually been a number of investors looking to pick up stocks on the dip and this one doesn’t look as if it will be much different, with US markets closing off their lows last night, but still well down on the day.

Last night’s late pullback, as well as a more stable Asia session, looks likely to see a higher European open this morning, particularly after reports this morning that President Putin had ordered his troops in Western Russia, on Ukraine’s eastern border, to return to their bases.

Yesterday’s drop in equity markets overshadowed a marked improvement in US ISM manufacturing data in February, despite concerns about the effects the cold weather has had on economic activity in recent weeks.

The main worry is that given what is happening over in Ukraine right now it is quite likely that any economic data releases could well become a side show, particularly if the crisis looks as if it could drag on for a while, which at the moment seems likely.

A bigger concern is that the rise in commodity prices if sustained, along with higher interest rates in emerging market economies could create the conditions for a sell-off in equity markets as company profit margins shrink on higher input costs and a slowdown in the pace of growth, in these emerging market economies.

Given that most of the sales growth from S&P companies comes from foreign sales then you really have to ask where the extra earnings growth is going to come from, particularly in the coming months if emerging market growth slows.

Markets will have to get used to the idea that there is unlikely to be a speedy solution to this issue given yesterday’s comments by the Ukrainian Prime Minister saying it “will never give up” Crimea.

Given that the Russians are already there, and getting more entrenched by the day, it is very difficult to imagine a scenario that could compel them to leave quickly. As such we can expect further jawboning and posturing from both sides which are likely to keep markets on edge. Furthermore the prospect of EU imposed trade sanctions, could well raise the stakes and prompt a counter reaction from Russia.

In any case the main focus today, Ukraine events notwithstanding is some economic data from the UK in the form of construction PMI for February which is expected to show a slow down with a drop to 63.6 from 64.6. There is a significant chance of a weaker number given the disruptions caused by the weather last month, caused by the heavy storms and flooding, so we could well come in nearer to 60 than some analysts are estimating.

Meanwhile back in Europe the latest Spanish unemployment numbers for February are expected to show an increase of 30k, on top of the large jump of 113k seen in January. While EU leaders have been keen to talk up the prospects of a Spanish economic recovery, with both manufacturing and services PMI numbers improving, there have been no new jobs added in the last six months, with the numbers showing the loss of 115k.

EURUSD – last week’s failure to break above trend line resistance at 1.3835 from the 1.6040 highs this far, has seen the euro slip back, but the risk remains for a move towards 1.4000, on any break above it.

The euro bias still remains negative while we remain below 1.3835 but the lack of any dip does raise the concern we could push higher. Dips are likely to find support at 1.3720 and 1.3640, last week’s low.

GBPUSD – while we saw the highest monthly close since September 2008 last week the risk remains for a move towards 1.7000 and levels last seen in August 2009 when it traded at 1.7045. A close above 1.7000 could have huge significance in the coming weeks for the future direction of the pound. While below the highs last month at 1.6820, the risk remains for a pullback towards strong support at 1.6600, and below that at 1.6510.

EURGBP – the negative bias remains for a move back to the lows at 0.8160, while below resistance near the 0.8270/80 area. A drop below 0.8160 targets a move towards the 2010 lows and 0.8065, while a move above 0.8280 targets 0.8325.

USDJPY – downside pressure continues to prevail with the pressure for a move towards the lows last month at 100.75. A break below the 100.20 level and 200 day MA could well see further losses towards 98.30. The US dollar needs to overcome the 102.80 level to retarget a move back through 103 towards 105.00

Equity market calls

FTSE100 is expected to open 52 points higher at 6,760

DAX is expected to open 97 points higher at 9,455

CAC40 is expected to open 39 points higher at 4,330

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Original article: Ανάλυση αγορών από την CMC Markets.