MORGAN STANLEY The Euro Area Economy 2012 – 2013

MORGAN STANLEY

The Euro area economy is expected to contract in 2012, only to be followed by anemic growth for years to come

GDP Growth

2011:  1.6%2012:  -0.2%2013:  0.9%2014 – 2018:  1.4%

Personal consumption will slow with the economy

Private Consumption Growth

2011:  0.7%2012:  0.2%2013:  0.5%

Capital expenditures will dip

Gross Fixed Investment Growth

2011:  2.1%2012:  -1.5%2013:  0.5%

Capital expenditures will dip

Gross Fixed Investment

Growth

2011:  2.1%2012:  -1.5%2013:  0.5%

  Government spending will pull back thanks to austerity measures

Government Consumption Growth

2011:  0.5%2012:  -0.2%2013:  -0.2%

Prices are expected to decline, making room for monetary easing

Inflation

2011:  2.7%2012:  1.5%2013:  1.3%

Core-Inflation

2011:  1.4%2012:  1.1%2013:  1.2%

 

However, income won’t keep up with inflation

Real Disposable Income Growth

2011:  0.2%2012:  -0.1%2013:  0.5%

However, income won’t keep up with inflation

Real Disposable Income Growth

2011:  0.2%2012:  -0.1%2013:  0.5%

 

 

 

 

 

 

The savings rate will inch lower

Personal Saving Rate

2011:  12.4%2012:  12.2%2013:  12.1%

Meanwhile, the unemployment rate will continue to climb

Image: AP

Unemployment Rate

2011:  10.1%2012:  11.0%2013:  11.2%

 

 

 

 

 

Government debt will outpace GDP

General Gov’t Debt (% of GDP)

2011:  88.2%2012:  91.0%2013:  92.2%

The ECB is expected to cut rates soon, while German yields are projected to rise

ECB Policy Rate

2011:  1.00%2012:  0.50%2013:  1.25%

10-Year German Bund Yield

2011:  1.75%2012:  2.20%2013:  3.00%

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Filed under: ΕΠΙΚΑΙΡΟΤΗΤΑ